Peak oil 8: The climate change trojan
Anyone who keeps an eye on their weather, climate, local and global weather / climate statistics, will know the climate is changing. How many of the 10 warmest years since we started to properly record such data have occured since 1990? 10. Which April was the warmest in the USA ever? 2006. Coincidences? Nice dust bowl you got growing in the southern USA methinks.
Yes, the climate is almost certainly changing, and a good part of that change is almost certainly due to us humans burning fossil fuels etc. And it will almost certainly have a quite nasty and possibly unpredictable impact on climate, and on human, animal and plant life.
But the real tsunami of climate change will take decades to build, centuries to play out, millennia (or longer) to dissipate. The current UK 'dear leader', Tony Blair, bangs on about climate change at every opportunity, but about the only practical solution he proposes is nuclear power. Something smells.
The words 'peak oil' have never publically passed a serving UK government minister's lips as far as I know. But in addition to 'climate change' we are hearing more about 'energy security'. I say these are 'trojans', preparing the ground for what they know is going to come too soon to prepare against hence they dare not mention. After the fact this will be justified by: avoiding panic and premature collapse of financial systems / it happened too quickly to foresee / we relied on the IEA and they didn't tell us.
Am I completely deluded and peak oil is more than 10 years away? I hope so. But I am pretty sure maximum global oil (IEA all liquids definition) production will almost certainly (99%) never exceed 95 mbpd, probably (75%) never exceed 90 mbpd. Current production is about 85 mbpd and demand is growing about 2% annually. That looks like peak oil by 2010 to me.
The probable truth is: the realisation of imminent peak oil breaks the current financial and monetary systems since we are too late to effectively adjust to peak oil. In that situation governments and 'those that know' need to resort to trojans like climate change and energy security to get at least some positive change in place without letting the rabid cat out of the bag.
BTW, a good new PO intro is here:
A bit too even handed to be realistic but is about as fair, unsensational and unscary as it is possible to be.
To redress the balance: PO will probably happen before 2010, there is no way short of a severe global depression to adjust demand to available supply by then, it will probably break our economic, fiscal, financial and monetary systems. It's not money that makes the world go round, that is delusion, it is energy. I don't know what happens then but it might involve billions of premature deaths.