Commodity buy time
Oil and gas are less certain. I expect natural gas to be a more positive trade over the next 6 months but there will be more money to be made on oil if you get the ups and downs right. Oil is about $70 now and really resists temporarily falling more than a $couple below that. I think there is almost no chance of oil (WTIC next month) dropping below $65 before hurricane season end, I expect moments of $85 and if anything untoward happens $95 or more are very likely. Buy oil at $70, chicken out at $65 if nervous, sell on fast peaks to $85 cos TPTB will be against you (there was sign of this at the Katrina peak).
US$ is failing its bounceback around the 86% USDX level. This is ominous. Several people I respect are saying there will be a significant uptrend in $ about now with 90% and 92% in view, it doesn't feel so to me. I think a lot has to go right for $ to hold at or above 85%; breaks to 82%, 80%, 78% beckon IMO. What happens on this is probably most critical in determining the general shape of what happens. TICS data was $ bad this week, will lurk as a nasty smell for a while, if next month TICS is as bad expect a significant $ downturn.
Stocks looked over a precipice, turned round and ran to the nearest Fed beer pub. I can still imagine brief new highs but they would be artificial. If you are going to gamble I would say be prepared for highs of about 11,800 on DJIA and 1325 on S&P500 but bet for the downside and sell HARD if they make those artificial highs ;)
Gold and silver look good up bets now. I think some of the softs do too, I would go for coffee and wheat. Buying oil below $70 (WTIC) looks a good move.
These forecasts are invalidated by a US$ move to 92% of its USDX index, gold to below $525, silver below $8. This is not investment advice, if you listen to me it's your choice / problem / fault. I can't help it if I am wrong, or right ;)