Have the monkeys blown it?

The anticipation and chronicle of the woes soon to befall humankind. If you don't wish to know about bad things about to happen to you then you probably don't want to be here. Otherwise, I recommend you read any numbered topics, like Peak Oil, in sequence. If you comment I suggest you use a nickname, I'd appreciate you being consistent in what you call yourself.

Tuesday, December 06, 2005

Efficient Money

"The US government currently borrows $5,000 a year on behalf of each US family, which it dares not tax for electoral reasons. This is the source of the budget deficit.That uncollected money remains in the hands of the family, which currently prefers buying foreign goods and spends $5,000 on them, producing the trade deficit. The foreign supplier sends the $5,000 back to the US by buying government bonds and American businesses. This money from abroad is the source of the fine-sounding US capital inflow."

It struck me as the most concisely accurate description of current US economics I'd seen so had to share it with you. From here: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/tustain/2005/1205.html

I'll leave you and the theoretical economists to work out how many times that $5,000 'works' in the US economy but it's at least twice - once in the family budget (or is that in the Federal spend?) and once in foreign reinvestment back into the USA. If you begin to feel dizzy, sit down and congratulate yourself for beginning to understand. But in this high stakes game of fiscal musical chairs when the music stops we'll all fall down.

The article is by a goldbug, I'm not one of them ( I have a bit of a problem with the concepts of 'money' and 'property', though less than my problem with monotheism) but I'd bet that gold will more than double its current price of $500 within less than a handful of years - the printing presses of the US Fed make it almost inevitable. The article has some nice snippets of info too, for example: "Gold is famously useless in almost everything except that it cannot be made, and is reliably difficult to find. Even now if all the gold ever produced on Earth were formed into a single cube its edge would be less than 20 metres - 2 metres shorter than a tennis court. Annually mined production grows that cube by about 12 centimetres a year, and more than each year's production is used up by jewellers such that now 75% of that cube is fabricated in an art form worth several times its bullion value. "

I'm going to have lots more to say on the US and global economics later but I have a few more Peak Oil missives to post before I wander down that thorny lane. Hopefully I'll get a round tuit before my economic expectations come to pass - you would be wise to hope that takes a decade and yet remains true ;) . Meanwhile I strongly recommend this place:
http://www.financialsense.com/index.html
as the best resource online for attempting to inform people about what is really happening economically. I especially look forward to listening to their Saturday morning MP3 files. Though its balance is (realistically) less than optimistic, the site is HUGE and gives many differing views a chance to express themselves. It has true integrity.

Saturday, December 03, 2005

Peak Oil 2 : but why worry?

I want you to think hard before reading on.

If you read this post and some of its links you will be wiser but sadder, your awareness and thinking will have changed, the equations that decide your choices about life will be different. In some ways you, and your perception of reality, may change in an irrevocable way.

Last warning: what you are about to read cannot be unread.

Unless we can find, and implement on sufficient scale, alternative cheap energy sources by the time peak oil happens, it will cause massive economic disruption, probably widespread famine and death even in Europe and USA, most likely wars over oil and other resources. No combination of existing known energy resources - fossil and renewable - plus massive conservation measures could compensate for peak oil if it occurs within 10 years, but more about that another day.

Humans have always had a new and more powerful energy source to turn to when needed. Initially we had only our bodies, powered by the food we could find. Then our use of biofuels like wood, and animal labour for transport etc. Wind and water power helped with early mechanisation. When industrialisation began coal was found and mined, steam power became an important flexible energy source. The last century has seen the widespread use of oil, gas and nuclear power. Oil is the most critical of these: it is very energy dense, easy to mine and transport, incredibly cheap (so far), and very versatile.

Humanity has never, on a global scale, faced the problem of a reducing supply of energy.

Read that last sentence again and let it sink in.

It has been faced on a more local scale, usually disastrously, as in this Bronze Age example of 'Peak Wood':
http://anthropik.com/2005/10/peak-wood/

There is a strong argument that the growth in wealth and size of the human population over the last three centuries is almost totally due to humans' exploitation of fossil hydrocarbons. Our economic system is dependent on continued growth - not steady state - more than a year or two of contraction will cause serious problems for the current economic and financial systems, peak oil will certainly break them.

Population is dependent on food production, which has increased about four-fold in productivity per unit of land in developed countries over the last century. Some of this is due to better / more productive plant varieties, some due to better knowledge, skills and methods; but most is due to fossil fuels: mechanisation, fertilisers, herbicides, pesticides, refridgeration, transportation, preserving.

You will find this article truly shocking:
http://www.fromthewilderness.com./free/ww3/100303_eating_oil.html

This planet has one military superpower and it will stop at nothing to secure access to the oil it demands. As Dick Cheney - the current US vice president - said in 2004 (I think): "The american way of life is non negotiable" - and he was specifically speaking about access to sufficient energy supplies and oil. The Iraq invasion was the first large scale military expression of that philosophy.
http://www.consortiumnews.com/2005/110705.html

So, there you have it: peak oil will break our economic and financial systems, cause widespread starvation and be the direct reason for further major wars. By the time things have stabilised in a sustainable way after peak oil I expect the global population to be between 20% and 50% of its current level, that could be any time from about 2020 to 2100. The stabilised 'post-peak' population could be significantly lower than 1 billion but it won't be significantly higher than 3 billions unless something unforeseen and unpredictable occurs like a previously unknown, cheap and flexible energy source, invasion by benevolent aliens etc.

Here are some sites that explain the gory details better than I can...

Richard Heinberg writes and lectures well, this from 2001 sets the scene nicely:
http://www.museletter.com/archive/110.html
(later it is worth coming back to his Museletter site and reading more
http://www.museletter.com/index.html
but, for now, I recommend you visit some others...)

This site is fairly pessimistic:
http://wolf.readinglitho.co.uk/index.html
..as you will realise if you get to this page:
http://wolf.readinglitho.co.uk/mainpages/whattodo.html

Matt Savinar was qualifying as a lawyer when he heard about peak oil, thought: it can't be true, then researched a bit and realised it was. He started writing and talking about it and his life changed completely. He's good at explaining the important aspects:
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Index.html

This site is by a non-scientist who recently discovered peak oil and has done a good job of organising most of the important facts:
http://www.eclipsenow.org/

A fair summary of current oil supply situation from The Guardian, April 2005:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/life/feature/story/0,13026,1464050,00.html

I have avoided the frequently updated news and discussion sites about peak oil (for now), there are several excellent ones, and have tried to give links that explain the basic background to the peak oil. There is one last such site that hasn't been updated much in the last 3 or 4 years but is an impressive collection of articles up to then. Don't attempt to read too much of it - it would take days - but you will be surprised how much information was available 5 years and more ago. It isn't an optimistic site, as you will guess from its appropriate name:
http://www.dieoff.org/

Happy reading!

If you can listen to audio files like MP3s on your PC here are a couple of good ones (the best way to listen is to save the MP3 file first then listen to that when convenient) ...(both about an hour long and 10 to 20 MB size)
1. Interview Jim Puplova / Matt Savinar about peak oil in general
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2004/Savinar.html
2. Peak oil and food, a good lecture by Richard Heinberg
http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/lectures/446

PeakOil 1 : What is it?

Peak oil is the moment in time when humans produce the most oil that they ever will, thereafter production will steadily decline - mirroring the growth of production to the peak but almost certainly more abruptly. Very likely that will closely coincide with the moment we have produced half this planet's recoverable oil. We will only know after it happens, probably a year or more after, unless some catastrophic event makes it clear. The exact day is unimportant, the year of peak oil seems the most appropriate measure.

It will certainly happen someday, unless oil is a continuously renewing resource, the only question is when.

Wikipedia has a good introduction:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_peak
A longer explanation:
http://www.answers.com/peak+oil

Here is a concise summary:
http://www.copad.org/index.print.php?doc=oilpeak-war.doc

A very few people do not believe that oil and other fossil hydrocarbons are produced from dead plants and animals = "biotic oil", they believe in "abiotic oil". This is a good discussion of that possibility:
http://www.museletter.com/archive/150b.html

I agree with the above link and think that abiotic oil is incorrect for at least 99.9% of the oil we find. If you want to know more about abiotic oil try these, but I think it is a false idea and not worth reading about:
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/100404_abiotic_oil.shtml
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiotic_oil
and a series of 3 articles exploring in detail various facets of abiotic oil:
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/102104_no_free_pt1.shtml
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/011205_no_free_pt2.shtml
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/012805_no_free_pt3.shtml

So, unless you believe in abiotic oil the big question becomes: when?