Have the monkeys blown it?

The anticipation and chronicle of the woes soon to befall humankind. If you don't wish to know about bad things about to happen to you then you probably don't want to be here. Otherwise, I recommend you read any numbered topics, like Peak Oil, in sequence. If you comment I suggest you use a nickname, I'd appreciate you being consistent in what you call yourself.

Saturday, February 18, 2006

Road

[I wrote this several years ago, apart from the last couple of paragraphs it was a true day in my life]


It is so different now. My journey round Cardiff and up to Merthyr today will take just forty minutes along fast dual carriageways. The roads around this part of South Wales are the biggest change I've noticed in the region on my brief trips back. Sometimes it's hard to remember how it used to be.

In the late sixties I often went North to the Brecon Beacons to walk the hills with scouting friends. If we were lucky we could get past Merthyr Tydfil in a couple of hours, then our spirits would soar as the Beacons rose to meet us and the industrial valleys faded behind. Today I wanted to re-live those escapes, experience the freedom of the hills once more and recharge my spirit.

Today the weather was smiling on me. A blue sky, a few friendly white clouds and a soft breeze. The new road shows a flattering picture of the valleys, skirting the grey communities whose life was coal, and climbing through the gentle, beautiful hills. What would they have been without coal? The most wonderful part of Britain, I think. Round, sculpted hills, friendly woods and streams, the russets of autumn bracken. Perhaps it is best they now evade the ravages of tourism, a small recompense for its century and a half of blight.

Thirty years ago this seemed far from the truth. The two hour or more crawl up to Merthyr was never a pleasure. Lorries groaning and belching like trolls along the narrow road with the mindless intent of ants on a trail. Coal smoke from the houses mixed an acrid soup with diesel fumes and grey, misty rain turning all to wet slate. Black slugs of towns glistening, creeping out of the pits to corrode the beauty of the valleys. It was like the hinterland of hell, corrupted by fiendish purpose for some evil design. The Empire, born of iron and coal, now gone, still plucked its merciless tithe from the oldest colony.

The dire land spawned a people: community, chapel, nobility. Adversity bred purpose, fuelled by anger, to change the world that gave them birth. Their legacy remains and will shape the world yet. The void, the wake of coal's demise, cannot devour their purpose. But today it seems so unreal, the new road runs west of Quakers Yard, Merthyr Vale, Troedyrhiw and Aberfan. They pass by unnoticed below.

Once there were black pyramids, six I think where this road runs, above Aberfan. The spoil heaps spewed out by the mines. No more. Shame has erased them but time has not erased that shame. I remember that October day, returning from school to see television images. Unimaginable horror. At nine thirty that morning one of the pyramids, one of the coal tips, became some nameless moster sliding relentlessly down the hill to smother the defenceless school of Aberfan. As I watched the grey murk of day turning to black night, lights burnt bright revealing that which should never be seen, that words cannot describe.

Men, half naked, bloody hands clawing the black filth. Black filth torn from hell by their fathers, with their fathers' blood, in the land of their fathers. Faces obscured by black sh*t, streaked by tears, frozen by yet unfelt, uncomprehended pain. Silent sobs pierce the unnatural silence, loud above the throb of generators and scrape of shovels. More than a hundred children entombed. What hope is left? So many meanings coalesce in horror. Families whose life was their children, whose hope was education, whose dream was escape.

Nothing left but horror.

I almost crash on the roundabout at Pentrebach. I stop to wipe my tears and resolve to return along the old road after my walk. The road winds up through the last vestiges of "The Whitey", a lunar landscape vomited by the Dowlais ironworks. It began in the eighteenth century and I remember parts of it still hot, now little remains. Up and on to the Heads of the Valleys road, a bleak limestone plateau, sheep rasping their living from the wiry grass. Then down to Llangynidr and Usk valley. Crossing the river brings me into a friendly countryside. The red sandstone soil works its magic, conjuring woods and hedgerows, foxgloves standing benevolent guard midst the hazel.

My route takes me near Partrishow so I detour to its church - St. Issui, Patricio. A small building of quiet magnificence and wonder in the middle of nowhere. Its rood screen alone is worth the journey but the red ochre figure of Time or Doom on its west wall, a skeleton with scythe, hourglass and spade, fills me with awe. I contemplate the wall and wrestle with its meaning but leave without conclusion, just a vague unease and feeling of its power. This soon fades as I wind along the Grwyne Fawr valley through the trees of Mynydd Du forest.

The road peters out apart from a track up to the reservoir. Leaving the car I rejoice in the feel of walking boots, rucksack and the freedom of the hills. Today is a good one for walking.

As I stroll gently upwards through the valley's trees Kapil Dev hits four sixes in an over to save the follow on and I chuckle at the apoplexy of the cricket commentators and with joy at the exuberance of it all. Yes, this is going to be a good day.

My walk along the western ridge of the Black Mountains - a curious name for these amiable green rolling hills - is a joyous one. Few people on the hills, perhaps they didn't anticipate the surprisingly good early summer weather and I enjoy the solitude. At one point I can see in the distance far below the heart shaped field that was our summer camp site in 1971. I can tell from here that it's a special place where the ley lines and other forces that pervade our planet, but few notice, converge. Thinking back it was nearly always me who chose the places for our scout camps. Maybe the others tacitly understood that I felt the forces and would choose well.

It's early evening when I return to the car, happily tired and feeling much better for the day's exertion. On my drive back I stop for a pint and a chat in Llangynidr, mostly about the day's cricket, before heading on to Merthyr.

As the road descends past Dowlais the weather changes fast. The sunshine fades to a grey and misty half-light. At Pentrebach I turn onto the old road, the change seems fitting, houses insubstantial ghosts in the murk, coal smoke pervading the air. I don't feel right - suddenly nauseous - perhaps because of the smoke - so I stop for a moment at Troedyrhiw near the old chip shop we used to call at. Strange, I thought it had been boarded up years ago, but surely it would be open at this time of the evening if still in business? I drive on southwards but just past the Aberfan sign I feel sick again. The west wall of Partrishow church seems to loom ahead of me in the deepening, chilly, gloom.

Hallucinating now? I pull over and stop, some fresh air might help but the smoky murk gives no relief. The silence is eerie, waiting. Somewhere in my mind an insane meaning stirs. Then I hear a rumble, the ground shakes banishing my doubts and I run, weeping, down the hillside towards the black tentacles of horror devouring the children of Abervan.

Tuesday, February 07, 2006

A quickie : global economics from first principles

The premise of this article is: what effect might an Iranian non-$ oil bourse have? But it goes much deeper into the meaning of money, the meaning of exchange, and so much more. It is a delight and entertaining too, a treasure:
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2006/0205.html

Peak oil 7 : Did we miss it?

As I speak May 2005 is the month of maximum oil (all liquids) production. We had expected it to pick up post Katrina etc, it has but not enough. Many variables and possible inaccuracies are involved but, as of now, we are waiting and hoping that global production will increase again. I personally think there is a higher top to come, but it may not be much higher. I guess we are on the plateau and within a very few years it will be clear we are on the downslope. That will test our humanity and wisdom, I hope (maybe in vain) we will not be found wanting.
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/2/4/4015/39115

Sunday, February 05, 2006

Peak Oil posts' quicklinks

This post contains direct links to all the previous Peak Oil items in this blog, it's just a convenient way of navigating to them in order. I'll replace it with an updated copy when necessary.

http://theslide.blogspot.com/2005/12/peakoil-1-what-is-it.html
http://theslide.blogspot.com/2005/12/peak-oil-2-but-why-worry.html
http://theslide.blogspot.com/2006/01/peak-oil-3-where-youre-at.html
http://theslide.blogspot.com/2006/01/peak-oil-4-crucial-links.html
http://theslide.blogspot.com/2006/02/peak-oil-5-big-when-1.html
http://theslide.blogspot.com/2006/02/peak-oil-6-about-your-head-where-youre.html

Peak Oil 6 : About your head (where you're at followup)

Last week a chap at TOD raised an important question: 'How are you doing? Are you, like me, dealing with a professional career on the one hand, and reading this site at night, thinking through the implications, and then waking up the next day again to plan a 5 year engineering project with ROI and thinking - "This is unreal"????' You can read the post and a good number of thoughtful and personal responses here:
http://www.theoildrum.com/comments/2006/2/2/202144/5783/6#6

TOD's main premise is to discuss peak oil in detail: will it happen, if so when, what does the data say, what reliable data is available, how can we model that data and attempt to predict future oil production and demand, what technical solutions are there, how viable and useful might they be? etc. It is not a place of gratuitious hand wringing and woe, woe, woe diatribes.

The people there, probably as informed a group (on the possibility and implications of peak oil) that one could find, are also people. Many have personally confronted what peak oil might mean for them, at some stage in your journey I think you will find it very helpful to read how they have been affected and how they have reacted. One way or another you are very likely to have to face this mental problem yourself before too long.

I do urge you to read that discussion, it could save you considerable anguish, its tone is more positive and constructive than negative.

Here's one quote: You want to cope? Be glad you are one of those who "knows," brother. You were put here to guide the less fortunate. Get busy.'

Amen and blessedbe

Friday, February 03, 2006

Fiscal aside: rotting prawns in the curtain rails

I'm going to explain this simply, apologies to those who are more aware.

The USA needs approx $2 billion daily of foreign investment to stave off its bankrupcy. It gets this money largely by issuing treasury bonds, a bit like taking out fixed term interest only loans then repaying them when they become due.

Typically it repays these loans by issuing further treasury bonds. Now, that is not a long term sustainable situation for you or me. Fortunately for the US it's OK while foreigners, who have surplus US$ due to trade surpluses, continue to grant those loans.

OK, some day maybe they won't, what happens then? Hmmmm. I must digress. The US Treasury produces 'TICS reports' which say which overseas countries own what US debt. In 2005 there were surprising increases in certain countries' holdings, notably 'Caribbean' and UK, most markedly the former. Odd, methinks, as did others even almost a year ago:
http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=2764

The US Treasury TIC page is here (but you would have to access the spreadsheet style data to see the foreign holdings info well):
http://www.treas.gov/tic/ticsec.html

Back then, a whole 45 weeks ago, the truth was merely hinted. Now it is being spoken aloud: "If foreigners decide to stop buying our government’s new debt, the Federal Reserve will have the ability to create new “digital” money out of thin air to loan it to the government themselves. This process is called “monetizing” the debt and is considered highly inflationary. They will use U.S. banks with offshore offices in the financial centers such as London and the Caribbean Islands to make it appear that foreigners are buying the debt paper." http://www.financialsense.com/Market/hartman/2006/0201.html

Now, this is not quite cricket! If foreigners will not finance one's debt then one must make 'economic adjustments' or call in the IMF who will loan one the readies in exchange for economic reforms. One should not loan oneself money by sleight of hand, that is poor form indeed. Let me assure you, when you look at the detailed data it is pretty hard to conclude otherwise than this is what the US is doing: buying its own debt and pretending foreigners are doing it. The US govt can print as much money as they want (and believe me, they have been for a too long time) but excess money printing has inflation and currency implications.

Does it matter? Well, it kinda compromises credibility, both economic and truthfulness. The buyers of US debt will be aware, no doubt, and will be taking steady and measured steps to reduce their exposure in US debt. If the signs continue in this direction you can expect a significant devaluation in the US$ and / or an upturn in US interest rates - regardless of domestic US economic circumstances.

That whiff of rotting prawns may soon become an intolerable stench.

Peak Oil 5 : The Big When - 1

My answer is 2008 unless economic recession delays or major geopolitical events intervene one way or another (but would probably foreshorten).

Note that 'conventional oil' (excluding: deepwater, polar and unconventional sources like tar sands) has peaked already, in 2004. I guessed you missed that, LOL.

This is a very contentious question and so is my answer. Some make arguable cases for 2005, some 2006 to 2009, some for 2010 to 2015, any such may be true. There are some who argue for dates beyond 2015 but their basis is so demonstrably erroneous that they can be easily dismissed by almost anyone who researches and analyses the known data.

If you want to grapple with the detail of 'when' I will give you profuse links in a second big when post, for now I will present my argument.

Oil prices have risen by over 30% in each of the last 3 years, 2003 to 2005. This has stimulated virtually all mothballed and relatively rapidly exploitable production to come onstream. New production must come from a combination of three main areas:
- new projects
- infill drilling for FIP (fields in production)
- EOR (enhanced oil recovery) like increasing pressure by injecting water

The second and third of these are already practiced just about everywhere. There is a worldwide constraint on new rigs (and on specialist steel to manufacture them, and the human skills). Drilling (new and infill) is running at maximum capacity and that capacity will not increase much, soon. EOR is a mixed blessing. Most EOR techniques increase production but result in higher decline rates once the field's production begins to decline, more on this later.

On the bright side there is a decent amount of new production that should come onstream in 2006 and 2007, it should exceed projected increased demand by perhaps 1 to 2 mbpd (million barrels per day). That is fortunate since supply and demand are currently very close to equal at about 85 mbpd. Less fortunately, things are looking bleak beyond that, there is likely to be a deficit of supply by the end of 2008 should business continue as normal. Note that major new production is usually known a good 5 years ahead - it takes considerable effort and infrastructure development to get most new fields capable of producing and delivering to market.

An aside: of course it is rather difficult for demand to exceed supply - one can only consume what one can get. Oil prices have doubled in 3 years, it is reasonable to think that would decrease demand somewhat. If it has it is not noticeable in the statistics. There was a slight decrease in US VMT (vehicle miles travelled) in the wake of the post hurricane US gasoline price spike (which was approx 50% increase) in September 2005 but latest VMT data is higher than a year earlier.

EOR and decline rates. When EOR is used it effectively brings forward production = more oil now, less later. If badly done it can actually reduce ultimate production, if well done it can increase ultimate production a bit. Most major FIP are using EOR now, it has been widely used in expensive production areas like North Sea (UK, Norway) since early on. When we look at the data we see that fields produced normally typically have decline rates of 2% to 5%, but those using EOR have a longer plateau of high production and a faster decline rate thereafter of 5% to 15%. Many projections about peak oil date use these atypically low decline rates. Of the 4 biggest conventional oilfields ever found on this planet:
Ghawar, Saudi Arabia
Burgan, Kuwait
Cantarell, Mexico
Daqing, China
Three are admitted to be in terminal decline (Burgan and Cantarell in 2005); the fourth and largest, Ghawar, we are unsure of since the Saudis don't disclose data, but there is evidence suggesting it too is, or will soon be. Since those 4 fields currently produce about 10% of this planet's oil best you hope their decline rate is in the 2 to 5% category, though we already know Cantarell's will be steeper.

This could be a problem. Higher than expected decline rates are the biggest downside risk to oil production forecasts and the odds favour higher decline rates than anticipated (the odds of lower than anticipated decline rates are minimal). In particular the black box that is Ghawar can only be inferred for now; it has been realistically been said that when Ghawar (which currently produces 5% of this planet's current oil production) dies, so does our society as we know it. I will leave you with just one link for now, draw your own conclusions:
http://home.entouch.net/dmd/ghawar.htm